greenhouse gas emissions

A Larger Slice

/ PK Read / 4 Comments
Click to go to interactive infographic. Graphic: Duncan Clark and Kiln, drawing on work by Mike Bostock and Jason Davies via The Guardian

Click here to go to interactive infographic.
Graphic: Duncan Clark and Kiln, drawing on work by Mike Bostock and Jason Davies
via The Guardian

The infographic above came out in The Guardian, and is an exploration of the role played by private companies, nation-states and state-run companies in the generation of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. There are 90 companies listed – all but seven are companies that deal mainly in fossil fuels.

The infographic below is an exercise in refinement. Lars Boelen was reading the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, edition 2013 that came out in early November. He came across the small pie chart here,

Carbon budget for 2 C° Source: IEA via Stormglas

Carbon budget for 2 C°
Source: IEA via Stormglas

which illustrates the ‘remaining budget’ of carbon emissions left for humanity to generate if the goal is to limit a global temperature increase to 2 C°.

Mr. Boelen was irritated by the simplicity of the chart, which had the largest slice allocated to 1750 – 2011.

The pie chart implies, to me at least, that we – meaning the current generations – aren’t necessarily responsible for the cumulative effect of carbon emissions because, after all, this is a process that has been going on since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Why should we take all the blame and by extension, have to make drastic changes?

Mr. Boelen thought the pie chart needed a bit of refinement, and lo, the distribution of culpability looks a bit different when we find out that the vast majority of ‘carbon budget’ has been ‘spent’ (or perhaps more accurately, ‘squandered with profligacy’) since 1970.

Almost all the major fossil fuel companies in the top infographic, at least in their original forms, were founded in the glory years of oil and gas discovery between 1870 and 1920, although the past 30 years have seen countless mergers. The companies have grown ever larger. As for nation-states, China accounts for 8.5% of emissions, with a continued rise due to its dependence on coal.

Together, according to the soberly-titled report published in the journal Climate Change, Tracing anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers, 1854–2010, these companies account for two-thirds of all greenhouse gas emissions since the dawn of the industrial era.

Half of all emissions have occurred in the past 25 years alone.

So when we hear about how hard it will be to curb emissions, or that ‘this is the way things are done’ and how expensive it will be to change course, keep in mind that there is no long history or tradition behind our current carbon spending spree. This is as new as cars that are still driving on the road today.

Carbon Budget Graphic: Lars Boelen

Carbon Budget
Graphic: Lars Boelen

Buoyed Up

/ PK Read / Leave a comment

The Majuro Declaration, a plan of action put together by the fifteen-nation Pacific Island Forum (PIF) to aggressively combat climate change, greenhouse gas emissions and the rise of sea levels, gained major support this month with the agreement of the United States to support the Declaration and its goals.

Image: via news24.com

Image: via news24.com

The United States also announced a new climate change fund of $24 million over the next five years for projects in “vulnerable coastal communities” in the Pacific.

U.S. support of the Majuro Declaration is good news, and an acknowledgement on an international level that, as stated by US Interior Secretary Sally Jewell, “climate change is the defining challenge of our time.”

However, I have a hard time reconciling this U.S. pledge and the $24 million amount with the support by the same government of increased development of greenhouse-gas emitting fuels, especially through fracking, as well as subsidies and investments ongoing fossil fuel extraction and distribution, which still greatly exceed subsidies and support for alternative fuels.

Estimated U.S. subsidies and support for fossil fuels 2002-2008. Post-2008 attempts to reduce subsidies have rarely been successful. Credit: Environmental Law Institute

Estimated U.S. subsidies and support for fossil fuels 2002-2008. Post-2008 attempts to reduce subsidies have rarely been successful.
Credit: Environmental Law Institute

More:

Read more about the Majuro Declaration here.

Mobile Gardens

/ PK Read / 1 Comment

Bus-top gardens, the planting of gardens on the elevated flat space of urban bus tops, is a nice subversion of how we usually think of gardens.

Namely, we think of gardening as a place-specific activity. Rooted in place, not to put too fine a point on it. So why drive gardens around on the daily commute?

A Phyto Kinetic prototype bus in Girona, Spain. Photo: Phyto Kinetic

A Phyto Kinetic prototype bus in Girona, Spain.
Photo: Phyto Kinetic

Because in an urban setting the size of New York City, for example, landscaping on top of buses could mean 35 more acres of green space.

Marc Granan has started a new project, Phyto Kinetic, in Spain. Taking notes and learning from an earlier project in the US (Bus Roots), he utlized thin sheets of hydroponic foam reduce the overall weight of the traveling garden. Irrigation takes place using water from the vehicle’s air-conditioning system. Granan argues that bus gardens could be just the beginning – why not plant garden fleets atop city vehicles?

A Phyto Kinetic green van. Photo: Phyto Kinetic

A Phyto Kinetic green van.
Photo: Phyto Kinetic

Bus Roots founder Marco Castro hoped to “reclaim forgotten space, increase quality of life and grow the amount of green spaces.”

Bus-top gardens might be, for the moment, a starry-eyed vision that falls into the category of ‘doing something is better than doing nothing’. But if maintenance and weight challenges can be overcome, it might help offset greenhouse-gas emissions at a key urban source, provide a bit of green magic and inspiration to city streets, and also open a whole new sector for jobs in urban gardening.

More:

Visit Bus Roots here.

Visit Phyto Kinetic here.

HuffingtonPost article on Phyto Kinetic – Rooftop Gardens On Buses Makes Total Sense, And Here’s Why by Salvatore Cardoni

2010 Gizmag article on the Bus Roots project – Living garden on bus rooftop to add some rolling green to city streets by Darren Quick

Connect the Dots

/ PK Read / Leave a comment

Earlier this summer, NASA released a projection of potential temperature increases and precipitation changes across the United States from now until 2100, based on two different scenarios: In one, concerns regarding greenhouse gas emissions are addressed (i.e. a CO2 level of 550 ppm), in the other, they aren’t and development continues on as it is now (CO2 levels at 800 ppm).

Mosaic of annual and summer temperature visualizations, two different projections of CO2 emissions Source: NASA

Mosaic of annual and summer temperature visualizations, two different projections of CO2 emissions
Source: NASA

In both cases, temperatures go up and precipitation increases dramatically in some areas and disappears from others. But the scenario in which emission concerns remain unaddressed is, indeed, the stuff of nightmares.

It’s taken me a bit of work to unravel the knot of why the news coverage of this projection – which usually only included the worst-case forecasts – bothered me.

Visualization of summer temperature increase in the US by 2100, assuming a CO2 level of 800 ppm. Source: NASA

Visualization of summer temperature increase in the US by 2100, assuming a CO2 level of 800 ppm.
Source: NASA

When I look at the coverage of this item, as well as at the increase in doomsday books/movies/television shows that project a future of apocalyptic climate change, it seems like what we are doing is paving the way towards an acceptance that the worst-case scenarios are somehow unavoidable – thereby absolving anyone from taking definitive action now, when it is needed. Panic and resignation are hardly the best cornerstones for constructive action.

Scenario showing temperatures during June, July, and August (US summer) with CO2 levels at 550 ppm. Source: NASA

Visualization of summer temperature increase in the US by 2100, assuming a CO2 level of 550 ppm.
Source: NASA

And I think that what’s disturbing is the disconnect in the general media between these dystopian visions and the actions that are moving us closer to them with every passing year.  There is rarely a realistic context of current financial, corporate, energy or government policy offered when these predictions are forecast. Thus, the scenarios seem to just manifest themselves as if that’s the way it has to be.

Climate catastrophe entertainment, both fictional and in the news, has replaced the Cold War nuclear war scare stories of my youth, or the alien invasion (again, Cold War inspired, but a different flavor) of the previous generation.

Annual precipitation projections for 2100. Scenario B1 is for CO2 levels at 550 ppm; A1 represents CO2 levels at 800 ppm. Source: NASA

Annual precipitation projections for 2100. Scenario B1 is for CO2 levels at 550 ppm; A2 represents CO2 levels at 800 ppm.
Source: NASA

And this is part of what makes it possible for someone like Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson to state in all seriousness that these scenarios are all but inevitable, that they are primarily just another geo-engineering problem to be solved, as well as a justification for carrying on as usual.

It almost goes without saying that I don’t agree.

What can be done?

Beyond what you are already doing, demand better coverage in the media – coverage that connects the dots for people who don’t follow this news regularly.

What we do today matters for tomorrow.

UltimateEarth

More:

The NASA visualizations can be viewed as short films. For temperature projections, go here. For precipitation, go here.

Getting There From Here (1)

/ PK Read / Leave a comment

The on and off of Beijing air pollution.
For an interactive look at what major cities would look like with the level of pollution that Beijing experienced during the 2012-13 winter, go to the source of this image: Marketplace.org

China’s cabinet recently released the outline of a strategy to deal with its ‘airpocalypse’, the devastating air pollution levels in many of its major cities. The main goal is to reduce industrial emissions by 30% by the end of 2017.

In a ten-point plan, the State Council proposes making sure that construction projects pass environmental evaluations before permission to build is granted; emergency response plans for high-pollution periods (including traffic reduction and industry emission limits); stricter controls on the expansion of heavily polluting industries. The industries set to face special emission limits include iron and steel, cement, and petrochemicals.

While it’s a tremendous step forward to have the government of China – currently the world’s foremost source of greenhouse gas emissions – acknowledge the urgent need for a strategy in emissions reduction, it’s also a little hard to see how that will dovetail with massive economic expansion based in large part upon the very industries which are set to face strict emissions limits or any kind of business-as-usual approach.

One way might be the outsourcing of emissions within China, i.e. locating some industries to less populous provinces to reduce pollution in the larger cities. Carbon outsourcing accounts for 50-80% of emissions in Shanghai and Beijing.

A graphic showing how coastal provinces of China are outsourcing their greenhouse gas emissions by importing goods from less developed provinces, 2013. Source: University of Maryland via The Guardian

A graphic showing how coastal provinces of China are outsourcing their greenhouse gas emissions by importing goods from less developed provinces, 2013.
Source: University of Maryland via The Guardian

For me, this isn’t really a solution so much as a delay and repositioning of the same problem – just because pollution isn’t on your front doorstep doesn’t mean it’s any less dangerous.

According to Steven Davis, the University of California professor at Irvine who led a study on emissions outsourcing in China, the country is taking a short-term solution that comes at the cost of genuine improvements through the modernization of the highly polluting coal-based industrial production still common in the provinces.

“The tragedy of this is that the easiest and cheapest cuts in emissions are in these provinces in the interior where the technologies are antiquated and with even slight improvements could be much, much cleaner,” Davis said. The net effect of the outsourcing is to make it far less likely China would reach its climate targets.

In this case, out of sight doesn’t equal out of mind.

More:

Guardian article – China launches new measures to tackle air pollution by Jennifer Duggan

Guardian article – China’s rich provinces outsource emissions to less developed areas by Suzanne Goldenberg

PNAS.org study – Outsourcing CO2 within China by Kuishuang Feng, Steven J. Davis, Laixiang Sun, Xin Li, Dabo Guan, Weidong Liu, Zhu Liu,Klaus Hubacek